Project Description
Supervisors
Professor Robert Nicholls, University of East Anglia – Contact me
Dr Stefanie Nolte, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
Dr Mike Walkden, Moffat and Nichol
Background
This PhD assesses the interplay between coastal erosion, coastal management strategies and sea-level rise over the long-term (to 2300) using ensemble simulations within an integrated assessment systemic approach. The research focusses on understanding the potential evolutionary trajectories of the North Norfolk coast from Blakeney to Winterton Ness and their implications for coastal management. This is an exemplar site of this problem nationally and globally. The research builds upon the Tyndall Coastal Simulator which analysed evolving coastal hazards along the North Norfolk coastline to 2100. The Simulator linked a range of simulation tools, datasets and scenarios to examine future trajectories of coastal evolution. These results also informed the current coastal strategy for the North Norfolk coast. Subsequently, there have been notable developments in sea-level rise projections (extending to 2300 and capturing uncertainty), computing power and visualisation tools3. There is also policy interest in coastal adaptation pathways, especially coastal adaptation transitions, and recognition of the long timescale of the problem as sea level will continue to rise well beyond 2100.
The existing Tyndall Coastal Simulator integrated approach will be updated and extended to 2300, including the following components:
- Extend and improve the climate change scenarios,
- Develop new management scenarios that describe the full range of potential options,
- Develop suitable appraisal methods building on state-of-the-art practise,
- Simulate future trends in coastal erosion and tidal flooding across the full range of scenarios, using ensemble methods to capture uncertainty,
- Analyse and interpret their implications for coastal management and coastal land use in Norfolk in the short-term, medium- and long-term up to 2300,
- Create an accessible web-based database to summarize and communicate these results and insights for wider use,
- Consider the wider transferable lessons.
Training
Training will comprise of:
- Integrated assessment methods
- Appraisal and economic assessment
- Numerical models (e.g., SCAPE2)
- Programming
Person specification
A degree/international equivalent in a subject focussed on the built environment or natural processes (e.g. Civil engineering, environmental science, etc.)
Desirable skills/experience include:
- Coastal processes and management
- Appraisal and economic hazard assessment
- Numerical modelling
- Programming
- Data visualisation
- GIS